Rate forecast — methodology v1

The forecast is a deterministic, versioned calculation — never a model, never an AI-generated figure. It is logged every time it runs, so any range shown can be traced back to the exact history it came from.

1. Take the last 90 days of published NZD/INR reference rates from Frankfurter (the same daily ECB-sourced feed every other rate on this dashboard uses).
2. Compute the day-over-day percentage change (the "return") between each consecutive pair of days.
3. Drift is the average of those daily returns — the rate's recent average direction. Volatility is their standard deviation — how much the rate has been bouncing around that average.
4. Project 7, 14 and 30 days ahead: the expected rate compounds the drift forward; the band around it widens with the square root of the number of days (a standard random-walk assumption — uncertainty compounds, but not linearly).
5. The band is ±1 standard deviation, stated as a 68% confidence range — roughly a two-in-three chance the actual rate on that day falls inside it.

What would change this: the forecast assumes the recent 90-day pattern of drift and volatility continues. A rate move outside the stated band, a central-bank rate decision, or a shift in the broader economic outlook for either currency would invalidate it — at which point the next computed forecast reflects the new pattern, not this one corrected.

Timing suggestion. When the forecast leans toward a better rate later, the transfers panel may suggest waiting — unless an active commitment on the India side of the corridor is due within that window, in which case sending now is suggested regardless, since a better rate that arrives after a payment was due doesn't help.

This is illustrative information, not financial advice — see the disclosure on the transfers panel. No figure here is a recommendation to transact by a particular date.